帕孜力亚·牙生,姚华,占琼

• 1:新疆医科大学公共卫生学院
• 2:新疆医科大学第一附属医院公共卫生科
• 3:新疆医科大学第一附属医院研究生教育管理科

摘要(Abstract)：

目的建立和验证基于多囊卵巢综合征(polycystic ovarian syndrome,PCOS)相关因素的列线图模型以预测多囊卵巢综合征的发生。方法收集2017-2019年某三甲医院生殖助孕中心的PCOS患者162例和妇产科健康备孕的女性162例,随机抽取70%分配到训练集,其余被分配到测试集。将参与者的基本信息、生活行为因素、实验室检测指标等采用LASSO回归进行筛选,建立多因素Logistic回归模型,利用列线图实现预测模型的可视化,并进行模型的验证。结果最终进入预测模型的是体质指数(body mass index,BMI)、高脂饮食、初潮年龄、月经周期、抗缪勒管激素(anti-Müllerian hormone,AMH)水平5个变量。训练集和测试集模型曲线下的面积分别为0.773(95%CI 0.712～0.833)和0.740(95%CI 0.642～0.839),分别用于预测和内部验证。结论基于PCOS相关因素建立预测PCOS风险的列线图模型具有良好的精准度和区分能力,有助于对PCOS患者进行自我风险评估和健康咨询。

关键词(KeyWords)： 多囊卵巢综合征;相关因素;列线图;预测模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2017D01C325)

作者(Author): 帕孜力亚·牙生,姚华,占琼

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